Comment Text:
I would like to ask the Commission to take strong regulatory action regarding event contract derivatives traded on prediction markets. Prediction markets are concerning for market integrity, insider trading and the commodification of events. There should never be event contracts that allow wagering on military operations, foreign policy decisions, terrorism, assassination, or other government actions. These create unacceptable risks because individuals with nonpublic information about those decisions have both the opportunity and financial incentive to exploit that. When people think that government decisions are influenced by private financial interests, it erodes public trust. It erodes my trust.
The Commission should explicitly prohibit event contracts related to military operations, acts of war, terrorism, political assassinations and non-financial government policy decisions. Additionally, any event contract where the outcome can be known in advance or controlled by a specific individual or small group is inherently susceptible to manipulation and should face a presumption against approval.
The Commission has both the authority and responsibility under the Commodity Exchange Act to make clear prohibitions on event contracts contrary to the public interest. I respectfully request that the Commission prohibit these dangerous categories of event contracts, strengthen surveillance and enforcement mechanisms to detect insider trading, and prioritize market integrity and public welfare over industry growth. The financialization of every aspect of human life, including war, death, and governance is unacceptable.
