Comment Text:
I have years of experience with the stock market, stock options, casinos and sportsbooks.
1. Prediction market contracts on death, war and other negative actions on living beings should not be allowed. It is scary to think that someone may be incentivized by a prediction market payout to perform negative actions on living beings.
2. Prediction markets on easily manipulated criteria should not be allowed. I recognize that this is subjective, but not allowing trading on a single person's actions would be a good place to start. For example, there are currently multiple contracts on Polymarket regarding how many times Elon Musk will tweet within a certain time period. Obviously Elon Musk could single-handedly completely manipulate this market. Another example is contracts on criminal court cases where judges or maybe even lawyers could manipulate the markets. Another example: Fed decision in April (No change vs 25 bps decrease) - such a market could sway someone to vote in a way they otherwise might not, which is scary as a citizen.
3. I am unsure of exactly how the government defines gambling vs investment, but I would find it funny for anyone to try to argue the following contracts on Polymarket are “investments”:
a) The next James Bond actor
b) Who will win Big Brother Brasil 26?
c) # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?
d) Sports spreads
e) Presidential election winner 2008
etc, etc, etc..
These are bets, not investments.
4. There is no reason that Prediction Markets should not be regulated the same as gambling services (gambling services such as casinos, sportsbooks, both online and brick-and-mortar).
Considering my background in both investing and gambling, this whole thing reminds me of US Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s statement about pornography: when it comes to gambling, “I know it when I see it.”
Prediction Markets are gambling.
